The Hype Cycle....By Cody

The first thing I noticed was that Tera-Architecture is slated to be 10 years or more to mainstream adoption. I disagree with this statement, in that they say that the first step will be virtualization. Virtualization is not new technology, by anmy means, but it is just starting to gain footing in the mainstream, with EMC's VMWare leading the pack. But, Microsoft is pushing virtualization heavily with their Server 2008 platform, and I believe once this sets, the Tera-Architecture could hit it's 1% market infiltration maybe five years after that. So instead of more than ten years, I would say that seven or eight years would be a better estimation, without conducting further research.
Behavioral economics will flourish as we become less and less prone to privacy, so I do agree with the authors' conclusion. I also agree with them on thier status on Idea Management being five to ten years out. I only think that because I see how the ITSM model has infiltrated the mainstream corporate process and the vast success it hs found. Idea Management will be just a natural progression of progress integration.
The authors give a five to ten year time frame on RFID, and that is something I also disagree with. I believe it will be further out, regardless of Wal-Mart's influence in pushing the technology. The tags are cost-prohibitive, and the radio frequency still has issues with bouncing off of metal and being absorbed by liquid. I recently visited NCR headquarters in Duluth, Georgia and witnessed their development of RFID tags. They were very novel, and with certain items, I really could just push a cart full of groceries though their receiving gate and have the total pop out on a receipt. But there were a lot of errors regarding the aforementioned packaging, and I do not believe the technology will increase enough, and bring the cost down enough, to gain widespread adoption in the next fove to ten years. RSS bar codes are chearp, can hold a trillion bits of information, and are accomodated by most of the scanners on the market today. RSS will win over RFID for the next 20 years.
There were many other interesting notes on the Hype CYcle chart, and you could almost already see the difference since it was posted in July, 2007 and now. Web 2.0 is here and we are already approaching Web 3.0, and location awareness I would say they hit right on the button, so to speak. Very interesting chart in itself, but more than that was the way it advises one to THINK about how they see emerging technologies and lay a framework as to how to approach their market strategy.